bem · Equity Research · Initiation of Coverage

Anthropic (ANT): Hyper-Growth Frontier AI Meets Multi-Hundred-Billion Compute Commitments

Anthropic combines unprecedented top-line scaling ($16.3B H1'26 revenue, 900% NRR) and inflecting unit economics with massive, largely non-cancelable compute obligations and a complex Public Benefit governance structure that removes public shareholder control.

Rating: Not rated (pre-pricing) — lean Overweight on fundamentals, tempered by valuation and compute commitment overhang
Valuation framework: With the IPO price range and share count left blank pending pricing (following a May 2026 Series H at $589.01/share pre-split and an April 2026 secondary tender at $25.91/share), we frame valuation using EV/Annualized Run-Rate Revenue (Q2'26 annualized revenue of $46.4B) and EV/Gross-Profit-Equivalent (Revenue less Compute & Infrastructure). Given 80% consumption-based revenue ($13.1B in H1'26) and heavy capital intensity, we benchmark ANT against consumption-based data infrastructure peers like Snowflake (SNOW), large-scale enterprise software leaders like Salesforce (CRM), and hyperscale AI ecosystem peers Alphabet (GOOGL) and Amazon (AMZN), applying a governance and capital-commitment discount for its >$660B in post-2025 compute obligations and dual Founder/LTBT control.

Investment thesis

Anthropic is scaling at a velocity rarely seen in enterprise technology. Revenue grew from $41M in FY23 and $386M in FY24 to $4,585M in FY25, before surging to $16,286M in H1 2026 alone (up 1,300% YoY vs. H1'25's $1,163M, with Q2'26 YoY growth at 1,368%). Quarterly revenue hit $11.6B in Q2'26 ($46.4B annualized), propelled by 900% Net Revenue Retention (as of Sept 30, 2026) and rapid enterprise expansion: customers generating >$100K TTM revenue expanded from 20 at YE23 to 1,500 at YE25 and 11,900 by Sept 30, 2026, alongside 1,900 customers >$1M and 250 customers >$10M. TTM revenue per employee reached $6.6M as of Sept 30, 2026 (up from $1.4M a year prior).

Unit economics have inflected sharply positive even as GAAP bottom-line losses remain distorted by financing marks. Revenue per compute dollar more than quintupled from $0.40 in Q1'25 to $2.08 in Q2'26 ($11.6B revenue on $5.6B of compute and infrastructure expense), driving Adjusted Operating Margin from -221% in Q1'25 to +19% in Q2'26. On a GAAP basis, H1'26 operating loss narrowed to -$693M (-4.3% margin) from -$2,135M in H1'25, and H1'26 operating cash flow turned positive at $3,929M (with -$482M in CapEx). The headline H1'26 GAAP net loss of -$80,748M (and -$132,902M accumulated deficit) is overwhelmingly driven by -$72,388M in non-operating fair-value remeasurements on convertible notes and derivative liabilities ($108,566M on the balance sheet alongside $157,510M in redeemable convertible preferred stock).

The central tension for public equity investors is the sheer scale of fixed compute commitments versus predominantly uncommitted, consumption-based revenue ($13,064M, or 80.2% of H1'26 revenue, with RPO at $10.8B). Subsequent to FY25, Anthropic signed ~$417B in minimum compute and lease obligations (plus $125B-$150B in estimated 2028-2031 expansions), followed by another ~$245B in multi-year and ~$21B in short-term commitments after June 30, 2026. While liquidity is fortified by $131.7B in cash and short-term investments and an undrawn $15.0B revolving credit facility, management explicitly warns that bringing massive incremental compute online in advance of revenue will compress operating margins in future periods.

Furthermore, Class A public shareholders will have virtually zero governance leverage. Anthropic is a Delaware Public Benefit Corporation whose directors are legally required to balance pecuniary returns against its public benefit mission, backed by a dual-control structure: the independent Long-Term Benefit Trust (LTBT, holding the sole Class T share) elects a majority of the board, while the co-founders' Founder LLC (holding Class F stock) controls 50.1% of general stockholder voting power without proportionate economic interest. Combined with a February 2026 U.S. government directive halting federal agency use and a Department of War 'Supply-Chain Risk' designation, investors must underwrite unique regulatory, political, and structural risks.

Key numbers

Metric	Value	Period / source
Revenue (GAAP)	$16,286M (H1'26) / $4,585M (FY25) / $386M (FY24)	H1 2026, FY25, FY24 / Financial Statements
Quarterly Revenue & Compute Expense	$11.6B revenue / $5.6B compute ($2.08 rev/compute $)	Q2 2026 (1,368% YoY rev growth) / MD&A & Summary
Operating Loss (GAAP) & Adj. Operating Margin	-$693M (H1'26 GAAP) / +19% (Q2'26 Adj. Op. Margin)	H1 2026 & Q2 2026 / Financial Statements & MD&A
Net Loss (GAAP) & Convertible Fair Value Mark	-$80,748M Net Loss (incl. -$72,388M convertibles mark)	H1 2026 / Financial Statements
Operating Cash Flow & CapEx	$3,929M Operating Cash Flow / -$482M CapEx	H1 2026 / Cash Flows & MD&A
Cash, Short-Term Investments & Credit Facility	$131.7B ($112.4B cash + $19.3B ST inv.) + $15.0B undrawn revolver	As of June 30, 2026 (Sept 2026 credit a&r) / Summary & MD&A
Enterprise Customer Tiers (TTM Revenue)	11,900 (>$100K) / 1,900 (>$1M) / 250 (>$10M)	As of September 30, 2026 / Prospectus Summary
Net Revenue Retention (NRR) & Rev / Employee	900% NRR / $6.6M TTM revenue per employee	As of September 30, 2026 / Prospectus Summary
Revenue Mix & Remaining Performance Obligations	80.2% Consumption ($13,064M) / 19.8% Subscription ($3,222M); $10,800M RPO	H1 2026 / Financial Statements
Post-2025 Compute & Lease Commitments	~$417B (H1'26) + $125B-$150B (est. 2028-31) + ~$266B (post-June 30, 2026)	Subsequent Events / Financial Statements & MD&A
IPO Shares Offered & Price Range	Blank pending pricing (10-for-1 split effected Sept 2026)	Offering Snapshot & Subsequent Events

Bull case

Explosive enterprise adoption and expansion: 900% NRR and rapid scaling of large accounts (from 20 to 11,900 customers >$100K TTM revenue between YE23 and Sept 2026, including 250 customers >$10M) demonstrate deep enterprise workflow penetration across coding (Claude Code), knowledge work (Claude Cowork), and cybersecurity (Claude Security).
Rapidly improving compute unit economics: Revenue per compute dollar rose from $0.40 in Q1'25 to $2.08 in Q2'26 as H1'26 revenue grew 1,300% YoY while compute and infrastructure expenses grew 283% YoY (300% in Q2'26), driving Q2'26 Adjusted Operating Margin to +19% and H1'26 operating cash flow to $3.93B.
Architectural efficiency and product velocity: Claude Opus 5.5 reduced customer cost per task by 40% vs. Opus 5, and Anthropic's fungible multi-chip architecture (AWS Trainium, Google TPUs, NVIDIA GPUs, AMD Instinct MI450) mitigates single-vendor hardware bottlenecks.
Fortress balance sheet and strategic backing: $131.7B in cash and short-term investments as of June 30, 2026 ($141.1B aggregate capital raised), an undrawn $15.0B credit facility (maturity Sept 2031), plus up to $30B and $20B in additional debt/equity financing facilities from Google and Amazon.
Broad blue-chip validation and distribution reach: Quantified productivity gains across marquee customers (e.g., Salesforce +151% developer output, Verizon 33,000+ engineers on Claude Code, Lilly 50,000+ seats) amplified by global systems integrators (Accenture, Deloitte, KPMG, PwC) and platform partners (Snowflake, Salesforce).

Bear case

Staggering take-or-pay compute overhang: Hundreds of billions in largely non-cancelable multi-year commitments—including $161.2B to Broadcom (equipment leases), $114.5B to Google (plus $125B-$150B estimated), $110.0B to Amazon, $44.9B to Microsoft, $44.6B to Nscale, and $41.3B to Lambda—create severe fixed-cost leverage if AI demand or pricing falters.
Revenue volatility and concentration risks: 80.2% of H1'26 revenue ($13,064M) is consumption-based without long-term volume commitments (total RPO is $10.8B, less than one quarter of Q2'26 run-rate revenue), and management explicitly warns that historical growth rates will decline and incoming compute capacity will compress near-term margins.
U.S. government ban and national security designation: On Feb 27, 2026, the U.S. President ordered federal agencies to stop using Anthropic's models and the Department of War designated Anthropic a 'Supply-Chain Risk to National Security'—and while the NDCA largely granted summary judgment for Anthropic, the D.C. Circuit denied its petition for review (2-1).
Complete disenfranchisement of public stockholders: The LTBT (Class T) elects a majority of the board and Founder LLC (Class F) holds 50.1% of general voting power with zero economic interest, while Delaware PBC law mandates directors balance financial returns against public benefit—potentially delaying commercial launches for safety.
Massive share dilution and overhang: Beyond $157.5B in redeemable convertible preferred stock and $108.6B in convertible notes/derivatives as of June 30, 2026, post-Q2 events include 91M RSUs ($5.8B grant value), 846.8M Class N shares contributed for public benefit, Donation Matching Plan settlements ($2.0B Q3'26 expense), and 3.11B Class A shares reserved under 2026 equity plans.

Top risks

Take-or-Pay Compute Commitments (Severity 5) — Anthropic has locked in >$660B in post-2025 minimum compute and lease obligations (including $114.5B Google, $110B Amazon, $44.9B Microsoft, $161.2B Broadcom leases) that must be paid regardless of actual usage or revenue realization.
Frontier Capability Race & Model Obsolescence (Severity 5) — Maintaining pricing power and 900% NRR requires continuous, capital-intensive training of frontier models against fierce rivals (OpenAI, Google); any lag in model capability or misallocation of compute could rapidly erode consumption revenue.
Compute Supply & Input Concentration (Severity 5) — Scaling depends on a concentrated group of cloud/chip suppliers (AWS, Google, Microsoft, NVIDIA, Broadcom, AMD) and upstream fabs/memory makers (TSMC, SK hynix, Samsung, Micron), where power or hardware bottlenecks could delay model training and deployment.
Consumption Revenue Volatility & Customer Concentration (Severity 4) — With 80.2% of H1'26 revenue consumption-based and concentrated in top customers, coding use cases, and cloud marketplaces, customers can rapidly dial back usage or switch to cheaper/open-weight alternatives.
Controlled Company, Dual Governance & PBC Trade-offs (Severity 4) — Public Class A holders cannot influence board control (split between LTBT's board majority and Founder LLC's 50.1% voting block), and PBC fiduciary duties allow management to prioritize AI safety over profitability.
Legal, Copyright & Regulatory Backlash (Severity 4) — Anthropic incurred a $1.5B legal settlement in FY25, faces ongoing copyright/training-data claims (Concord Music, BMG, Sony Music, Reddit), and is actively litigating the Feb 2026 U.S. Presidential ban and Department of War Supply-Chain Risk designation.

Governance & control

Delaware Public Benefit Corporation (PBC) & Controlled Company: Directors are legally obligated to balance stockholder pecuniary interests, materially affected stakeholders, and the Company Purpose ('responsible development and maintenance of advanced AI for the long-term benefit of humanity'). Relies on Nasdaq controlled-company governance exemptions.
Long-Term Benefit Trust (LTBT) Board Majority (Class T): Holds the sole share of non-economic Class T common stock, granting it authority to elect and remove Class T directors who constitute a majority of the authorized board. Governed by four independent Trustees (Chair Dr. Neil 'Buddy' Shah, Richard Fontaine, Dr. Ben S. Bernanke, Dr. Christopher Stubbs; one seat vacant).
Founder LLC Voting Control (Class F): Holds the sole share of non-economic Class F common stock, carrying 50.1% of total voting power on all matters submitted to stockholders generally, including electing non-Class T directors. Initially owned by the seven co-founders (including CEO Dario Amodei and President/Chair Daniela Amodei).
Multi-Class Economic & Employee Shares (Class A, Class N, Class E): Public stockholders receive Class A (1 vote/share, economic rights). Strategic partners and the Anthropic Public Benefit Fund, LLC (846.8M shares contributed) hold non-voting Class N (converts to Class A upon transfer to unaffiliated third parties). Employees (excluding co-founders) hold non-economic Class E (1 vote/share on limited matters, including Specified Class T Director disputes and LTBT/Class T amendments).
Board Composition & Anti-Takeover Defenses: Board includes Dario Amodei, Daniela Amodei (Chair), Lead Independent Director Reed Hastings, Specified Class T Director Christopher Liddell, Vas Narasimhan, and Yasmin Razavi. Defenses include a classified board, multi-class stock, 30B authorized preferred shares, and Delaware/federal exclusive forum bylaws.

Compute: the whole ballgame

Inflecting Compute Unit Economics: Compute and infrastructure is the largest operating cost ($8,945M in H1'26, or 55.0% of revenue, down from 160% in FY25 and 653% in FY24). Quarterly revenue per compute dollar improved from $0.40 (Q1'25) to $0.69 (Q4'25), $1.40 (Q1'26), and $2.08 (Q2'26: $11.6B revenue vs. $5.6B compute expense), though management warns future capacity additions will precede revenue and compress margins.
Hyperscaler Cloud Commitments (Non-Cancelable Take-or-Pay): Committed to spend at least $114.5B with Google (April 2026–July 2033 for TPUs) plus an estimated $125.0B–$150.0B for 2028–2031 pay-as-delivered TPU capacity; at least $110.0B with Amazon (May 2026–April 2036 for Trainium, NVIDIA, and AMD GPUs); and at least $44.9B with Microsoft (Nov 2026–May 2033).
Silicon, Lease & GPU Cloud Arrangements: Entered five-year master equipment leases with Broadcom for TPU capacity totaling ~$161.2B in rent excluding interest (plus a March 2026 NPA for up to $42.0B in convertible notes to finance lease rent); agreed to spend up to $120.5B with SpaceXAI (into 2029, cancelable on notice), up to ~$44.6B with Nscale (into 2033), ~$41.3B with Lambda (into 2034), and >$20.0B with AMD (2027, MI450 GPUs).
Strategic Supplier Financing Loops: Compute partners double as major capital providers—Google bought $10.0B of Series G-2 preferred in March 2026 and committed up to $30.0B in future debt/equity through 2030; Amazon held $6.2B in 2023/2024 NPAs, bought $5.0B of Series G-2 in April 2026, and committed up to $20.0B in future debt/equity; AMD committed to buy up to $5.0B of Class N stock subject to conditions.

Questions for the roadshow

Compute Commitment Flexibility: Across the ~$417B in H1'26 commitments, $125B-$150B in 2028-2031 expansions, and ~$266B in post-June 2026 commitments, what exact percentage is strictly take-or-pay versus cancelable (like the $120.5B SpaceXAI deal) or contingent on delivery milestones?
Margin Trajectory & Compute Digestion: Q2'26 revenue per compute dollar reached $2.08 with a +19% Adjusted Operating Margin, yet MD&A warns of margin compression as incremental compute comes online—what is the expected trough Adjusted Operating Margin in H2'26 and FY27 based on your current delivery schedule?
Revenue Visibility & Concentration: With 80.2% of H1'26 revenue consumption-based and RPO at $10.8B (less than one quarter of Q2'26 run-rate revenue), what share of revenue comes from your top 10 customers, coding use cases (Claude Code), and hyperscaler cloud marketplaces?
U.S. Government Ban & Supply-Chain Risk Designation: Following the D.C. Circuit's 2-1 denial of your petition regarding the Feb 27, 2026 Presidential order and Department of War Supply-Chain Risk designation, what is the revenue impact on defense contractors and regulated enterprise customers?
PBC & LTBT Commercial Trade-offs: Can management cite specific historical instances where the PBC mandate, Safety and Risk Committee, or LTBT oversight caused Anthropic to delay a commercial model release (such as gating Mythos) or forgo revenue, and how will conflicts with public shareholders be resolved?
Pricing Deflation vs. Token Volume: Claude Opus 5.5 cut customer cost per task by 40% vs. Opus 5—how is gross margin per token trending across Opus, Sonnet, Haiku, and Fable in the face of open-weight and hyperscaler price competition?
Fully Diluted Share Count & Overhang: Given the $157.5B in preferred stock, $108.6B in convertible notes/derivatives, 846.8M Class N shares in the Public Benefit Fund, and 91M post-Q2 RSUs, what is the exact pro forma fully diluted share count upon IPO conversion, and how many shares unlock at Day 180?

Form S-1 (Anthropic, PBC): Prospectus Summary, Offering Snapshot, Risk Factors, MD&A, Consolidated Financial Statements & Subsequent Events (EY audit report dated June 1, 2026), Business, Management & Governance, Principal & Selling Stockholders, Related Party Transactions, and Description of Capital Stock / Underwriting.